- “At Fitch Solutions, we believe that recent polls are significantly overstating support for Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate running in Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election. Indeed, we maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress.”
THE ASSUMPTION HERE IS FIRST OF ALL THAT ATIKU IS OUT OF THE GAME,WHICH I AGREE AS THE PARTY IS DIVIDING DAILY.AND THAT A SPLIT IN PDP WILL FAVOUR APC AND NOT LP. IN OTHER WORDS THIS IS A ONE PARTY STATE THAT BREAKS INTO TWO AND FUSES BACK AT WILL.THE SOLUTIONS IS UNMIDFUL OF THE FACT THAT THESE TWO PARTIES ARE PARTIES OF MAJORITY TRIBES. THE MINORITY IS NOT CONSIDERED AT ALL.
2.“Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians. At Fitch Solutions, we believe that recent polls are significantly overstating support for Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate running in Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election.
THERE IS AN ASSUMPTION HERE THAT MUSLIMS OUTNUMBER CHRISTIANS.WHILE RELIGION WILL PLAY A PART,THE EXTREMITIES ATTRIBUTED TO FAITH IN THE COMING ELECTIONS ARE REDUCING BY THE DAY. A MESSIANIC ESPECTATION IS BECOMING MORE PROMINIENT,AND TINUBU DOES NOT PROMISE THAT. THERE IS THIS PART THAT ASSUMES PETER OBIS POPULARITY IS OVERATED.FITCH DOES NOT KNOW THAT A VIBRANT NEW ENTRY IN THE POLITY CALLED YOUTHS VIA #ENDSARS IS IN PLACE.CURRENTLY NO ONE CORRECTLY PREDICT WHERE THIS FORCE WILL GO IN FEBRUARY.
3.“Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress; APC) and Atiku Abubakar (People’s Democratic Party; PDP) were mostly based on responses gathered online. Since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the Internet (World Bank, 2020), we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.
THIS IS IS ANOTHER MISTAKE.36% OF NIGERIANS USE THE INTERNET. AND THIS 36% NEARLY BROUGHT DOWN THE GOVERNMENT VIA END SARS.AND THIS MOVEMENT IS EXTREMELY BITTER AGAINST TINUBU.THIS IS A MINUS NOT A PLUS.GRANTED THIS 36% IS SOUTHERN BASED.LIKE I HAVE ALWAYS MAINTAINED THE DECISION IS THAT OF THE YOUTHS.IF THIS PERCENTAGE VOTES AGAINST TINUBU.HE WILL NOT EVEN COME SECOND
4.“Even if these surveys were accurate at a national level, Obi’s lack of support in Nigeria’s Muslim-majority North would make it difficult for him to win next year’s election. Indeed, the North is home to the majority of all voters and turnout in this part of the country tends to be relatively high, underscoring the importance of the Northern electorate.“According to Nigeria’s 1999 constitution, a candidate can only be elected if they both receive the majority of overall votes and over 25.0% of votes in at least 24 of the country’s 36 states. Given that Obi’s Labour Party has limited infrastructure in the North, he will struggle to meet this second voting requirement.
“Indeed, the Labour Party is not even running candidates for the Senate and House of Representatives in many northern constituencies. Furthermore, the northern electorate historically tends to vote for presidential candidates from their region. With Obi being a Christian from the South (Anambra State), increasing his voter share in the North will prove challenging.”
IT SEEMS ITS BEEN LONG FITCH LOOKED AT AFRICA,RECENT POLITICAL VICTORIES IN AFRICA SHOWS THAT STRUCTURES ARE NOW IN THE HEART.WHAT FITCH SHOULD BE LOOKING AT IS HOW VICTORIIES WITH STRUCTURE IN THE HEART WILL OVER COME ESTABLISHMENTS WITHOUT A MAJOR REVOLUTION.THINKING OF THE NORTH AS HOME TO MAJORITY OF VOTERS WITHOUT REALISING THE NORTH IS CURRENTLY ON THE RUN VIA INSECURITY IS SAYING THAT THE NORTH IS AN UNTHINKING MAJORITY.SECURITY OF LIVES AND PROPERTY IS A MAJOR ISSUE IN THE NORTH NOW.FITCH SUGESTS THENORTH CARES LITTLE ABOUT LIVES AND PROPERTIES
5.“However, given Obi’s popularity in the south – especially the South South and South East – we believe it is unlikely the main opposition party will be able to gain more votes in these parts of the country.
“Indeed, we maintain our view that the APC’s Tinubu is best placed to win the presidential election. We expect that the party, which has nominated a Muslim-Muslim ticket, will repeat its strong performance in the North. Given that Tinubu is a former governor of Lagos, the party is also likely to improve on its performance in the South West. Furthermore, we expect Tinubu to benefit from incumbency advantages, with the APC having been in power since 2015.
YOU SEE AGAIN FITCH’S THINKING.IGNORE THE SE/SS. FITCH ASSUMES NORTH IS ONE.THERE IS MIDDLE BELT AND TINUBUS SUPPORT FOR BUHARI REMINDS THEM OF HERDSMEN KILLING.THE MIDDLE BELT HAS FOR DECADES ACEPTED THE NOTION THAT IT IS A SILENT PART OF THE NORTH,THE RECENT EVENTS SHOW NOTHING BUT REBELLION AGAINST THE NORTH.
FICTH SAYS TINUBU PERFORMED IN THE SW,BUT WITH IGR FROM NON SOUTHWESTENERS MAINLY AS THE SE CONSTITUTES 45% OF THE LAGOS AND CONTROLS THE ECONOMY.
THE LAST LINE THAT THE OWER OF INCUMBECY SIMPLY POINTS TO EXPECTED RIGGING .THIS HAS BECOME MORE DIFFICULT AS BVAS HAS BEEN UPHELD AS A TOOL TO BE USED DURING VOTING.
6.“Protests and social discontent are likely to increase in the aftermath of a Tinubu win. Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between Northern and Southern states as well as between Christians and Muslims.
“A win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians. In addition, Obi’s supporters – mostly young, urban voters – are likely to question the fairness of the electoral process, especially after recent polls have predicted a win for Obi.
ONCE AGAIN FITCH IS WRONG WE HAVE HAD A MUSLIM/MUSLIM TICKET THAT WON IN NIGERIA,ITS NOT A TRADITION.HOW CAN OBIS FOLLOWERS QUESTION THE RESULTS WHEN THE WILL BE THE ONES TO CONDUCT THE ELECTIONS.THEY ARE THE THUGS AND THEY ARE THE SAME ONES COMING TO SUPPORT OBI WITHOUT INDUCEMENTS.IF YOUTHS ARE BRIBED AND THEY MAKE A DECISION ,WHY SHOULD THEY REVOLT AGAINST IT.WHAT FITCH IS SUGGESTING HERE IS MASSIVE RIGGING AND REACTIONS AGAINST IT.I HAVE ALREADY POINTED OUT THAT BVAS WILL MINIMISE RIGGING.
7.“These dynamics are likely to engender political unrest following the February vote. As a result, we have revised down the Social Stability component of our proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) from 30.0 to 25.0 previously (scores out of 100; lower score implies higher risk). This brings Nigeria’s overall STPRI score from 46.3 to 45.0.”
IT IS EASY TO USE COMPUTERS TO GENERATE SCENARIOS…WHO COULD PREDICT THE LEADERSHIP CRISIS IN UK WITHS ITS HUNDREDS OF YEARS OLD STRUCTURE.A REGIME FALLING AFTER 44 DAYS COULD NOT HAVE BEEN PREDICTED BY ANY ONE USING ABOVE INDICES.CAN FITCH TELL US HOW LONG THE GOVT OF PM RISHI WILL LAST IN UK?
8.“While Tinubu has stated that he would phase out Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy, we are sceptical this will happen in the short term. There appears to be limited appetite within the APC to remove the subsidy, and with inflation remaining elevated in 2023 – due to high food prices – the cancellation of the subsidy would negatively affect the new president’s popularity. Indeed, the PDP tried to remove the subsidy in 2012, but had to back down after large-scale protests,” it said.
“In addition, we believe that Tinubu’s aim to raise oil production is unfeasible in the short term. Crude production has declined significantly to 1.1mn barrels per day in September – a multidecade low – due to rising oil theft and previous underinvestment. Given the country’s weak fiscal position, we believe that there will be limited room for more security and social spending to combat oil theft and attract more investment.
FITCH IS INSUTING NIGERIA HERE.WHAT IT IS SAYING IN OTHER WORDS IS THAT EVEN THE VICTORY OF TINUBU IS STILL A DOOM TO NIGERIA
9.“While not our core view, factions within the APC could weigh on Tinubu’s popularity in Northern states. In addition, should public concerns about Tinubu’s health become more pronounced in the run-up to the election, we would expect his chances of winning to become smaller.
HOW CAN TINUBUS HEALTH NOT BE A CORE VIEW WHEN HIS EXIT ON HEALTH GROUNDS WILL GIVE ACCESS TO A HIGHLY SUSPECTED SHETTIMAH.FITCH SHOULD HAVE SPOKEN ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF HE TINUBU IS OUT OF CIRCULATION DURING AND AFTER ELECTION,THE NORTH HAS THIS AS A CORE ISSUE GIVEN THE EXPERIENCE OF LATE YA ARDUA AND THE FREQUENT HEALTH VISITS OF THE CURRENT PRESIDENT.
10.There remains a possibility that a three-way race results in no candidate passing the electoral threshold. This would prompt a second round for the first time in Nigerian history, likely heightening political instability.”
WE IN NIGERIA ALREADY ENVISAGE A STALEMATE.WE HAD THIS IN 1979 LEADING TO A COALITION GOVERNMENT BETWEEN NPN AND NPP.SADLY IT BECAME A MARRIAGE OF COMPROMISE AND CORRUPTION.WHETHER THIS LIKELY REOCCURENCE WILL BE ACCEPTED AS A MESSIANIC SOLUTION REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
OBSERVATIONS.
FITCH DID NOT MENTION INSECURITY AT ALL.STRANGE.VERY STRANGE.FITCH AVOIDED THE ABILITY TO MANAGE THE ENTIRE ECONOMY AND ONLY FOCUSSED ON OIL.
FITCH FORGOT THAT THE MUSLIM VOTE IN QUESTION WILL BE SPLIT IN THE NORTH BETWEEN 3 CANDIDATES ATIKU,KWANKWASO AND TINUBU.AT LEAST TWO STATES IN THE NORTH ARE FOR KWANKWANSO.IT MAY ASSUME HOWEVER THAT KWANKWANSO WILL MERGE WITH TINUBU.A VERY UNLIKELY PROPOSAL.
HOWEVER I AM GRATEFUL THAT FITCH MADE THIS REVELATIONS..IT SHOWS ONE THING. THE PEOPLE WE ARE RUNNIG OUT OF THE COUNTRY TO TAKE PICTURES WITH..THINK SO LOWLY OF US.
I COME IN PEACE
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