If any one must step down,its Tinubu,BA responds To Adamu Garba
I was surpised to read that Adamu Garba said Peter Obi (PO) should step down in favour of of Bola Tinubu (BAT) and he even got people to look at his story.
I was suprised because it should be the other way round if stepping down is to occur.
Let me start with the common premise.
The Port Harcourt rally.
Port Harcourt (PH) is principally made up of people who have experienced a progressive administration by the Nigerian standard. They are progresives. The are prinicipally of Igbo stock and they are liberal christians . The area has one of the highest standards of living in Nigeria. These are 3 of the very hall marks of the Peter Obi/Datti Ahmed (Obidatti) followers.
If its really true that the turn out was low in PH its traceable to political apathy not limited to Obidatti alone.
Look at the PH scenario. The governor is doing every thing possibleto prevent the encroachment of the old PDP,that even yesterday he shut the campaign office of Atiku the pdp presidential candidate.Wike is one person that has sworn to see the political end of Rotimi Amaechi wh was largely instrumental to the success of APC success in southern Nigeria in 2015.
What is the guarantee that these matters will not spill over into an Obidatti Rally and violence will occur. Its so bad that when there is a political killing in PH/ Rivers state ..Mikano team are the first suspect. People are cautious in PH. And securiing millions of supporters will be a problem for obidatti. The reverse situation in Bayelsa testifies rally to the popularity of Obidatti in the old Rivers state.
Having said that you will ask why even respond to Adamu Garba …a man who has publicly stated that Boko Haram and Bandits are Northern Nigeria freedom fighters and still walks free.The answer is very simple. Our people are impatient and may not remember history immediately. Also his statement against Obidatti is not call arising from strength..its a desperate call showing weakness. Hence the weak spot must be taken advantage of.
Tinubu’s Loss of Strong Hold
The introduction of BVAS has made thuggery and vote buying very difficult now. Infact it seems the biggest achievement of the President Buhari Administration.
In Lagos ,the method has not changed since 1999. Non indigenes are denied voters card and on election date they are chhased away from polling booths.
Vote buying has been retired largely due to its unreliability because at the end of the day the choice remains that of the voter and cannot be verified. Secondly the Edo led revolution of “i chop your jollof but did not vote for you because it was too salty” is going national.
Just two days ago Epe APC members detached them selves from the main group and headed towards PDP. This is called the Ambode factor. Let me not waste too much of your time.Epe will not forgive Tinubu for maltreating Ambode.
Check the history of Lagos,Northerners have never been considered a factor. But when Sanwo Olu demolished parts of Alaba Rago (Northern concentrate) .It took Rabiu Kwankwanso to beg and whisper something to Northerners in a visit within a week.We are not really sure what he told them . But the effect was that in a few months Governor Ganduje and the same Sanwo Olu had to beg..yes beg the residents of Alaba Rago for votes.
Still on the new northern impact in Lagos. Sanwo Olu won with less than 800,000 votes and now that religion is a more visible factor in national politics..Northern muslim votes are needed to counter the christian wave that Obidatti creating. A wave that has injured mortally the muslim muslim ticket of BAT.
Now northerners are many in Lagos. Alaba Rago,Agege,Mile 12,Ijora,…So definetely denying them pvcs will be hard since you need their votes. So at this point the BAT movement has to go its knees in a clear show of weakness
The other parts of lagos houses Edos,,Cross riverians..Akwa Ibom,,etc and igbos who are a clear majority and are christians . These groups have witnessed first hand the brutality of thugs officially and unofficially. They are progressive and have watched street urchins become millionaires with their sweat under the supervision of Jagaban. They will not vote for him.
Just before i leave The lagos page..let me remind you that shorty after the massive Obidatti show on october 1..LASG announced increase in salaries of civil servants..reduction in school fees…and a ban on LASTMA arrests.
Do not forget quickly that the Thugs bowed under economic pressure in their bid to tale over Alaba market.
Sadly a few days ago Eti Osa LGA witnessed Apc thugs attacking PDP. Its on record.
Finally Funke Akindele the lady dancer and actor gathered so much support in the market place that Tinubu out of anger had to insult her publicly, This is a clear show of desperation. I hear Badagy may announce its own rebellion soon. Now Funke who is contesting under PDP as deputy governor hails from Ikorodu…a shaky ground for the BAT movement.
Ogun State
Now look at the Ogun state..once a PDP state. Its on record and you can check it , The former govr Amosun has sworn to see the down fall of the current governor. A former pdp governor Gbenga Daniel recently demonstrated defiance by starting his senatorial campaign without clearance from APC hq. In fact the civil servants who attended the rally were issued queries. So 2 senatorial districts are out, The remaining senatorial district is represented by a senator who shifted camp from his Lagos senatorial district to contest under his home zone in Ogun. That could be a weak point for APC in Ogun state. The chap is literally sweating to introduce himself to the electorate. Ogun is no mans land politically..a land of equal opporturnities..a land of contention.
Now lets Look at Oyo its a strong PDP state and the governor is wavering in loyalty.If you recall recently some one was killed in the bid to remove a bill board.That will show you the level of competition.
Look at Edo..its already Obidient.
Look at Osun..the newly elected governor is for Atiku.
And Osun has been angry since 1950s .
I cannot speak on Ondo.Kogi or Kwara
Needless to say Tinubu is an unknown force in SE..with or without the support of that finland based seperatist. In SS..i wonder howhe will handle Delta when the PDP vice comes from these and Rivers state without clear Wike support since Amaechi is on the run.
Needless to say a bleeding Middle belt will not support any one who will continue the good work of President Mohammed Buhari
I cant speak for NW and NE..but i know majority of the northerners believe if its the will of Allah for you to be president,,then he will make you whole and not sick.
Now the last part. Tinubu has always hoped on religion and votes from NW. Ganduje was/is to play a role in Kano. In an non issue based political environment like ours ..surprises are common. Who could predict the sudden return of Mohammed Abacha. For one thing a third of Kano votes are gone to pdp…and the compensation may come in the split of APC votes in that state.
I dont want Tinubu out because if he is out ,Atiku becomes our president. i dont want Obidatti out..because the duo represents the relaease of a very powerful force consisting of youths and progressives. I dont want Atiku out because he represents the will of the north to rule.Let Feb 2023 come ..Let OPC maintain security in SW..let the will of the people reign. And to your likely question…why did the SW even select Tinubu..i have addressed that earlier…only that some one has attacked my blog.
I come in peace..Good Morning
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