Russia has deployed 1,800 fighters to eastern Libya in what it hopes will become a base of power to exert influence in other parts of the continent. Some of those deployed were Russian soldiers, and others were mercenaries with Russia’s Africa Corps, still widely identified by its former name, the Wagner Group.
The deployment came after a group of Russian ships delivered thousands of tons of weapons and military equipment at the eastern port of Tobruk in April. Both events came after meetings between Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, the Wagner Group’s new boss Gen. Andrei Averyanov, and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the leader of the eastern-based Libyan National Army.
Before the recent influx of mercenaries, analysts estimated that Wagner had about 2,000 fighters on the ground in Libya. Wagner entered Libya in 2018 to support Haftar in the civil war that came after the downfall of dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011. Wagner was paid for its services with Libyan oil.
According to the Arabic Post, the new mercenaries are the vanguard of 45,000 Russian forces expected to deploy to Libya as Russia hopes to expand its presence on the continent.
“The Wagner Group’s evolution from covert operations to a pronounced military role aligns with Russia’s broader objectives of controlling strategic resources and key geographic areas,” analyst Victoria Maldonado wrote recently in Georgetown Security Studies Review.
Analysts say that Libya provides Russia with a crucial bridge between its Mediterranean operations based in Syria and Wagner forces operating in Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic (CAR), Mali, Niger and Sudan. Among other things, Wagner’s Africa operations provide Russia with diamonds, gold and oil that it uses to finance its war with Ukraine.
In April, Russian aircraft transported fighters from Libya to Niger, where the ruling junta has struck a deal with Wagner.
Wagner and Russian forces control Libyan air bases near Sirte, al-Jufra and Brak al-Shati, from which they move supplies between allies in Sudan and other Sub-Saharan regions. They are pushing for docking rights in Tobruk, from which they can expand their naval presence in the Mediterranean.
Using social media posts, the website All Eyes on Wagner was able to follow the path of a worker with one of Wagner’s affiliated mining companies from the Wagner-controlled al-Kadim air base in Libya to the Wagner-controlled Ndassima gold mine in the CAR.
“Al-Khadim appears to be a key element in the Wagner Group supply and human resources chain between Libya and the Central African Republic,” analysts with All Eyes on Wagner wrote recently.
A compound on the air base also appears to host fighters recruited from Russia and Syria, the group noted.
Wagner fighters used al-Khadim as a hub to supply weapons to Haftar’s allies with Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) shortly after war broke out between the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces in 2023.
Russia is boosting its presence in Libya at the same time the country’s divided leadership is struggling to find a way to bring the country back together.
From 2011 to 2021, Libya was split between the internationally recognized Government of National Accord in the capital, Tripoli, and a rival government based in Tobruk. Since 2021, a Government of National Unity has sought to reunite and stabilize the country.
Wagner’s continued presence likely makes that impossible, experts say.
“Averyanov’s strategy involves orchestrating destabilization efforts to create chaos among anti-Haftar forces, thereby facilitating the Libyan National Army (LNA) to gain ground,” Maldonado wrote.
According to analyst Hager Ali, there’s little hope that Libya could set its political feet on the path to democracy as long as Wagner is present within its borders. Russia is likely to intimidate voters and interfere with or even rig elections, she said.
“The Wagner Group runs disinformation campaigns online,” Ali said. “Where you still have political parties that need to establish a voter base and make decisions about the electoral process itself, disinformation is hugely detrimental to the integrity of any electoral process.”
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