TINUBU, GANDUJE, KWANKWASO, AND THE NORTH: WHY SHETTIMA IS STILL THE POLITICAL STABILIZER HE CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE
There’s a storm quietly brewing in the northern political space. And at the center of it all are four names: Tinubu, Ganduje, Kwankwaso, and Shettima.
On the surface, Ganduje’s resignation as APC National Chairman looks like a standard political move part of a larger 2027 restructuring. But beneath the surface, it reflects the implosion of an aging northern power architecture.
And for President Tinubu, it marks a critical turning point one where every step moving forward must be weighed not just by loyalty, but by strategic survival.
GANDUJE’S FALL: MORE THAN RESIGNATION — A REJECTION
Let’s not sanitize history. Ganduje’s leadership of the APC was never fully accepted, even by insiders. He inherited a party deeply fractured after the exit of Adamu Abdullahi and governed with the political hangover of 2023 election losses in Kano his own backyard.
While he clung to relevance using party machinery and fought to defend his factional Emir (Aminu Ado Bayero), his grip on northern politics slowly eroded. His resignation wasn’t a sacrifice. It was a calculated purge.
Why now? Because 2027 is closer than it looks and Ganduje’s political liabilities had become too heavy to carry into a volatile future.
THE MYTH OF KWANKWASO’S APC RETURN
For those pushing the narrative that Ganduje’s exit clears the way for Kwankwaso to return to APC — think again.
Kwankwaso is no ordinary northern politician. He is a movement. A general without a party when necessary, but a kingmaker when the field allows. In NNPP, he is not just a national leader he is the soul, structure, and strategy of the party.
To return to APC would mean:
Reuniting with old enemies he fought bitterly.
Surrendering control of a party where he is the only voice that matters.
Gambling his entire political brand on promises from a system that’s already burned him once.
Unless he’s offered the APC presidential ticket outright, which is unlikely, Kwankwaso will stay put and continue expanding the NNPP as an alternative platform particularly for Northern youth, disgruntled elites, and street-level loyalists. VP promise will not make him to haste because he knows possibly he will just be a pawn to use by Tinubu.
TINUBU’S 2027 EQUATION: A TEST OF BALANCE, NOT POWER
Now to the main act: President Bola Tinubu.
He is not new to political strategy, but 2027 presents him with a crisis of convergence:
• A restive North where APC has lost shine.
• A South-Western base demanding more dividends of loyalty.
• A rising wave of socio-economic anger across regions.
• A divided Christian-Muslim demographic split that could blow up with the wrong move.
One of the biggest dilemmas facing Tinubu is whether to retain Shettima as his running mate.
He has made overtures to northern Christians with appointments and symbolic gestures. Some within his inner circle whisper about replacing Shettima with a northern Christian to “balance” the ticket.
But such a move could be political suicide.
WHY SHETTIMA REMAINS HIS STRONGEST CARD
Let’s deal in facts, not feelings.
Kashim Shettima may not command nationwide love, but he represents political stability in the core North:
• He is respected across northern Muslim political elites.
• He understands the insurgency-affected belt, particularly the North East.
• He has quietly built bridges across religious and ethnic divides without shouting about it.
• His loyalty to Tinubu has not wavered and loyalty is currency.
If Tinubu drops Shettima for a northern Christian, he:
• Risks losing the hard-earned trust of the Muslim North.
• Reopens wounds in a fragile region where religion is political.
• Appears ungrateful to one of the few figures who delivered despite odds.
If he retains Shettima:
• He may lose parts of the Christian block but still holds the strategic northern backbone.
• He avoids internal war within APC governors and senators who still respect Shettima’s style.
In political warfare, you don’t change generals unless they’ve lost the battlefield. Shettima hasn’t.
BEYOND PERMUTATIONS: THE REAL FACTOR IS PERFORMANCE
Ultimately, no political calculation will work if the economy continues to collapse under the weight of inflation, hunger, and insecurity.
The poor are restless.
Youths are disillusioned.
Northern votes can no longer be harvested on religious or tribal lines alone.
People want food, jobs, dignity, and safety. Even the best political strategy needs fuel — and in 2025, fuel is governance.
So, whether it’s Kwankwaso staying or defecting, Ganduje exiting or plotting a comeback, or Tinubu restructuring his cabinet the deciding factor is not in the noise, but in the results.
THE FINAL WORD:
In a field filled with chaos, only a stabilizer can hold the base.
Still, the best bet is Kashim Shettima — not because he’s flawless, but because, in this political jungle of shifting sands, he’s the only bridge between Tinubu and a North that’s increasingly unpredictable.
If Tinubu must gamble, let it be on results. Not on a fresh VP war that may cost him more than it wins.
Still discarding someone’s that spent four years in office as second citizen will not just perish without a repercussion because the likes of El-Rufai and the entire coalitions will be glad for such a costly mistake. That’s just the reality we live to see how it will end…
But winning elections in 2027 base on tactics of politics alone without desired results by the masses will not in anyway help Mr Tinubu
ShamsudenI brahim
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