US has limited leverage in Sudan, while Saudis hope to host peace talks

This represents America’s  past influence and leverage in Sudan:

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The United States for decades has been the key diplomatic player in Sudan, negotiating a 2005 agreement that ended the civil war and brought independence to South Sudan and later taking the forefront in efforts to stop a scorched-earth campaign in Darfur

How far America has fallen since those days. Secretary of State Antony Blinken did manage to negotiate a three-day ceasefire, but it failed to continue, with the warring parties unwilling to negotiate until now.

As news emerges of America’s limited leverage in Sudan, the Saudi-Iran rapprochement became visible in evacuation efforts in the country. The Saudis were evacuating Iranian citizens who were fleeing the conflict. Saudi Arabia warmly welcomed the Iranians (including an Iranian diplomat) in a reception upon their arrival in Jeddah. Iran praised the Saudis. Meanwhile, just over a week ago, House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul sent a letter to Blinken, “expressing grave concerns for the safety of all American citizens in Sudan.” While the American military has evacuated diplomats in Sudan, other Americans are stuck there, and are angry.

Now Sudan’s warring sides have agreed to negotiate. The meetings will potentially take place in Saudi Arabia. Again, America is left out.

According to Cameron Hudson, an Africa expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies: “Whether or not we have the leverage, we are looked upon as having the leverage” based on history.  But then she added that America’s “leverage in Sudan has substantially declined.”

As it has everywhere else.

“United States takes leading role to end violence in Sudan but faces limited leverage,” First Post, April 26, 2023:

The United States has taken the lead in attempting to put a stop to a wave of bloodshed in Sudan, but it still has a difficult road ahead due to its limited ability to restrain fighting generals.

A three-day truce, which began on Tuesday and has generally been held in Khartoum, was mediated by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, however isolated confrontations continued in other parts of Africa’s third-largest nation.

Previous cease-fires, which pitched paramilitary groups against the army, into which the potent unit was meant to be absorbed, soon fell apart after ten days of nonstop warfare.

According to Vedant Patel, a spokesman for the State Department, US diplomats are still “deeply engaged” with all parties in an effort to extend and make permanent the ceasefire in the hopes of paving the way for the civilian government.

John Godfrey, the US ambassador to Sudan who was evacuated on Saturday, and Molly Phee, the top US diplomat for Africa, have been engaged in extensive negotiations with the two generals in coordination with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two regional powers that have significant investments in Sudan.

Historic US role

The United States for decades has been the key diplomatic player in Sudan, negotiating a 2005 agreement that ended the civil war and brought independence to South Sudan and later taking the forefront in efforts to stop a scorched-earth campaign in Darfur.

But Washington, seeking to preserve bridges, had hesitated in the run-up to the violence to take direct action against the duelling generals. US diplomats are also now reduced to coordinating by telephone after President Joe Biden ordered an evacuation of the embassy out of safety concerns.

“Whether or not we have the leverage, we are looked upon as having the leverage” due to the history, said Cameron Hudson, an Africa expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The United States can still build diplomatic coalitions but its leverage in Sudan has “substantially declined,” Hudson said……

his represents America’s  past influence and leverage in Sudan:

The United States for decades has been the key diplomatic player in Sudan, negotiating a 2005 agreement that ended the civil war and brought independence to South Sudan and later taking the forefront in efforts to stop a scorched-earth campaign in Darfur

How far America has fallen since those days. Secretary of State Antony Blinken did manage to negotiate a three-day ceasefire, but it failed to continue, with the warring parties unwilling to negotiate until now.

As news emerges of America’s limited leverage in Sudan, the Saudi-Iran rapprochement became visible in evacuation efforts in the country. The Saudis were evacuating Iranian citizens who were fleeing the conflict. Saudi Arabia warmly welcomed the Iranians (including an Iranian diplomat) in a reception upon their arrival in Jeddah. Iran praised the Saudis. Meanwhile, just over a week ago, House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul sent a letter to Blinken, “expressing grave concerns for the safety of all American citizens in Sudan.” While the American military has evacuated diplomats in Sudan, other Americans are stuck there, and are angry.

Now Sudan’s warring sides have agreed to negotiate. The meetings will potentially take place in Saudi Arabia. Again, America is left out.

According to Cameron Hudson, an Africa expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies: “Whether or not we have the leverage, we are looked upon as having the leverage” based on history.  But then she added that America’s “leverage in Sudan has substantially declined.”

As it has everywhere else.

“United States takes leading role to end violence in Sudan but faces limited leverage,” First Post, April 26, 2023:

The United States has taken the lead in attempting to put a stop to a wave of bloodshed in Sudan, but it still has a difficult road ahead due to its limited ability to restrain fighting generals.

A three-day truce, which began on Tuesday and has generally been held in Khartoum, was mediated by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, however isolated confrontations continued in other parts of Africa’s third-largest nation.

Previous cease-fires, which pitched paramilitary groups against the army, into which the potent unit was meant to be absorbed, soon fell apart after ten days of nonstop warfare.

According to Vedant Patel, a spokesman for the State Department, US diplomats are still “deeply engaged” with all parties in an effort to extend and make permanent the ceasefire in the hopes of paving the way for the civilian government.

John Godfrey, the US ambassador to Sudan who was evacuated on Saturday, and Molly Phee, the top US diplomat for Africa, have been engaged in extensive negotiations with the two generals in coordination with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two regional powers that have significant investments in Sudan.

Historic US role

The United States for decades has been the key diplomatic player in Sudan, negotiating a 2005 agreement that ended the civil war and brought independence to South Sudan and later taking the forefront in efforts to stop a scorched-earth campaign in Darfur.

But Washington, seeking to preserve bridges, had hesitated in the run-up to the violence to take direct action against the duelling generals. US diplomats are also now reduced to coordinating by telephone after President Joe Biden ordered an evacuation of the embassy out of safety concerns.

“Whether or not we have the leverage, we are looked upon as having the leverage” due to the history, said Cameron Hudson, an Africa expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The United States can still build diplomatic coalitions but its leverage in Sudan has “substantially declined,” Hudson said……

 BY CHRISTINE DOUGLASS-WILLIAMS

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